Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, OH
153
FXUS61 KILN 101844
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
244 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong storm system will move through the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday bringing the potential for multiple rounds of severe
weather, flooding, and gusty winds.
2) Wind gusts up to 30-35 mph expected early Friday morning into the
evening particulary for Western Central / Central Ohio with isolated
gusts potentially reaching 40mph.
3) Warmer and wetter conditions expected Sunday into Monday,
potentially transitioning to a rain-snow mix in the early morning
hours on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) A strong storm system will move through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for multiple
rounds of severe weather, flooding, and gusty winds.
Tuesday night severe threat:
Thunderstorm initiation near the southern periphery of Lake Michigan
should be in the 4pm timeframe this afternoon, with the developing
complex to push southeast into the evening and early overnight hours.
This primary cluster should remain north of the ILN forecast area
until after 04z, and will be on a weakening trend and lose
organization as it progresses into the northern Ohio Valley.
The main potential for severe storms overnight will be south of this
main northern Indiana cluster. A 45-55kt LLJ develops overnight
which will prompt elevated convection after about 08z. Thunderstorm
clusters have the potential to produce large hail, and thunderstorms
that do develop can facilitate the mixing of the LLJ down to the
surface, so damaging winds are also a threat. Prime timing for this
first round of severe storm potential is 08-14z. There isn`t an
expectation of tornadic storms with this initial elevated cluster.
Wednesday afternoon severe threat:
After a potential lull in late morning/very early afternoon, the
afternoon threat may be highly conditional on how widespread morning
convection is and the extent of late morning/early afternoon clouds.
Surface cold front still outside the ILN area by 16z/Noon over
northern/Central Indiana into NW Ohio.
Looking at how the CAMs resolve the afternoon convection, only the
NSSL WRF seems to amp up the potential for stronger discrete cells,
as it`s not as robust with the morning convection. Confidence in the
extent and severity of the Wednesday afternoon storms is a little
shaky as a result. As the cold front pushes SE through the
afternoon, the greatest risk area for developing instability and
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorms after any lingering morning clouds
would likely be along/SE of I-71. In addition to damaging winds and
hail, the 16-22z timeframe along/SE of roughly I-71 has the best
potential for rotating storms/isolated tornadoes if we destabilize
enough.
Wind threat: With the strong LLJ ahead of the main frontal boundary,
winds pick up to 35-40mph even outside of any thunderstorms. Held off
on a wind advisory at this time, but mentioning this elevated wind
threat outside of storms in existing partner messaging.
Heavy Rain/flood threat: Per the HREF, the area with the best
potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain appears to be
along/north of a Richmond/Dayton/Circleville, with the localized
Probability Matched Mean from HREF members yielding a 24 hour
potential of 2-3". But this should be with multiple rounds over an
area that didn`t get flooded last week, so while minor flooding is
possible, if multiple rounds remain north of this line, not expecting
flash flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 2) Wind gusts up to 30-35 mph expected early Friday
morning into the evening particulary for Western Central / Central
Ohio with isolated gusts potentially reaching 40mph.
According to the GFS, an intensifying jet streak plans to center
itself over central Ohio with a weak positively-tilted trough at the
500mb level. An incoming cold front will pass midday Friday with
high pressure following behind with some clearing convection near
Western Central OH. Areas of Central Ohio and counties to the west
may expect wind gusts up to 35mph and potentially 40mph in isolated
areas. Temperature advection earlier in the day favor warm air
advection before flow becomes more zonal by the mid-afternoon,
bringing in some south-southwest flow. Relative humidities will
hover in the 40-50% range. Wind gusts are expected due to the
tightening pressure gradient on the southern side as the low dives
to the southeast.
KEY MESSAGE 3) Warmer and wetter conditions expected Sunday into
Monday, potentially transitioning to a rain-snow mix in the early
morning hours on Monday.
A deep, positively-tilted trough on Sunday will begin to shift
negatively by the end of Monday. Rain chances begin Sunday evening
before potentially shifting to a rain-snow mix in the very early
morning hours of Monday as the 540 line follows shortly behind the
cold front. Winds, both surface and aloft, will shift from southerly
to northerly, bringing in some colder and drier air. Severity of
this system is little to none, bringing in around under an inch of
snow near Wilmington and upwards of an inch near Cincinnati. Morning
commute may be affected by slippery road conditions. Winds center
around 10-15 kts during this event, decreasing chances for
whiteouts. Pre-frontal rain soundings have SBCAPE stagnant around 0-
600 J/kg with SFC-6km shear around 40-70 kts in varying areas; 700-
500mb lapse rates are looking to maximize around 7 degrees Celsius /
km with instability and energy dropping as soon as convection moves
into the area. Temperatures will center around 50-60 degrees F
midday Sunday before dropping down to the upper 20s and low 30s for
the incoming rain-snow precipitation, with highs during the day on
Monday only reaching the low 30s. The GFS shows areas of spotty
freezing rain around Columbus 06z and areas of sleet near south
central Ohio at 09z.
During the transition and front passing, a brief chance of mixed
winter precipitation will be possible. There is a chance for light
snow accumulations, but details are still to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Starting to see some breaks in the MVFR ceilings, so quiet conditions
expected through about 06z. As the strengthening LLJ pivots into the
region overnight, LLWS expected near/after 06z. Due to lingering low
confidence in thunderstorm development after about 07z, kept TSTM
mention to PROB30, but then introduced TEMPO groups at all sites,
with the narrowest window being KDAY as the frontal boundary
approaches toward the very end of the TAF window.
Strong winds outside of thunderstorms mainly after 15z will increase
to near 30kts or possibly higher right ahead of the cold front. FROPA
after about 20z at the KCVG extended TAF.
OUTLOOK...Sharp wind shift from southwest to northwest is expected
between 20Z Wed-00Z Thu, with gusts above 40 kt possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDR/RMM
AVIATION...JDR
NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion
